2026 Playoffs RD1

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With our new playoff 3.0 system under way, we have four teams on bye, and four teams knocked out of the playoffs. Congrats to ILCN, FJUB, SQSQ, and SPDE on those byes. Let's look at our RD1 matchups.

ROUND 1 Matchups

  • 5 SCRM vs 12 TRUO
  • 6 CHMK vs 11 SBUK
  • 7 SWMP vs 10 KSKT
  • 8 BUFF vs 9 MELO

5 SCRM vs 12 TRUO

After picking up a title last season, our defending champs seem like they’re taking a bit of a break from contention. With a late night pre-deadline trade away of a healthy Bam Adebayo for the injured Anthony Davis, SCRM is signaling that they are effectively throwing in the towel on a title defense, likely due to the unknown health status of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Pivoting toward youth, SCRM should still be good enough for a first round win here.

As for TRUO, they slid into the playoffs by picking up a WK17 win and giving them their first taste of a championship chase since 2018—albeit this season’s new playoff format is twelve teams. TRUO has a little bit of defensive toughness and offensiveness explosiveness, but it would take a minor miracle for an upset here.

6 CHMK vs 11 SBUK

Entering the last week of the regular season, CHMK was looking at a very likely bye. However, a WK17 loss and then wins by the teams behind them pushed CHMK down to a sixth seed. Ouch. Entering this season on the heels of a big ball revamp, it’s an open question how they’ll fare without the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo. Part of the blame for a late fall down the standings was some games played management to wind down the season. Can CHMK pull it together for a title run?

SBUK isn’t exactly the picture of health themselves, as Joel Embiid, Franz Wagner, and Alex Sarr are all likely out for at least this week.  And rookie pugilist Moussa Diabate is likely out as well. While CHMK is ripe for an upset, it’ll have done by a mish mash compilation of Desmond Bane and Nickel Alexander-Walker to happen.

7 SWMP vs 10 KSKT

Another matchup that is ripe for an injury fueled upset, SWMP has Jalen Williams, Zach LaVine, Paul George, and most likely Jalen Suggs out of the lineup. That means it’ll be up to Nikola Jokic and Jalen Johnson to carry them through. That’s hopefully enough actually, as both are premier triple double threats. What SWMP can do further down the line however, is an open question. I guess it’ll be just one opponent at a time!

Never the picture of health, KSKT is actually only missing Tyrese Haliburton and probably Kristaps Porzingis for this first round matchup—neither of whom has really played anyway. KSKT has the MVP-esque stylings of Cade Cunningham, flanked by Norm Powell, Michael Porter Jr., and a quite healthy Zion Williamson. That could be enough to pull off an upset against SWMP, and if there’s a dark horse in the first round, KSKT is it.

8 BUFF vs 9 MELO

It took some work, but BUFF closed on a 5-1 run to end the season and they’ll have the upper hand versus MELO—a team they narrowly lost to in WK11. Similar to almost every team these days, injuries abound for BUFF. They are down Domantas Sabonis, Lauri Markkanenn, and likely Coby White and Jonathan Kuminga. The duo of Jalen Brunson and Brandon Ingram have taken BUFF to a winning record, but all those missing players could make it tough for this offensive focused team to push further into the playoffs.

After knocking CHMK out of a top four seed and a first round bye, MELO has to be riding high and looking to pull off another upset. They have no real important players on the injury report and this is one team that definitely has to offensive power to go head to head versus BUFF, behind Jaylen Brown, Kevin Durant, Pascal Siakam, and Brandon Miller. This is our premiere match of the week, and it’s a toss up who could win!

Draft Lottery 2027

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Remember how we are instituting a draft lottery for 2027, using combined records from the two most recent regular seasons? Here is the full draft lottery explainer if you don’t recall.

And the actual NBA draft lottery rules as well. "After drawings are conducted for the first four picks of the NBA Draft, the other lottery teams will continue to pick in inverse order of their regular-season record." So for example, the worst pick our lottery position one team, MEMM, could get is 2027 RD1.5 pick, and so on.

Note: The draft lottery is only for RD1 and after that we are going reverse power rankings from the most recent regular season, and no snake each round. Just #16-1, #16-1, and so on.

Below is the our 2027 Draft Lottery positions and odds, and recall that we are aligning them with the actual NBA draft teams for the real life lottery. That means MEMM will be aligned with the worst NBA team, ABCX with the second-worst, and so on. So thus the NBA lottery night will be very exciting!

Tie-breakers

Between ABCX and TRUO, we just took the total H2H from the 2025 and 2026 seasons, resulting in a 2-1 record for TRUO, which gives ABCX a worse overall record.

Between BUFF and FJUB, we did the same thing, with BUFF winning those matchups 4-0, giving FJUB a worse overall record with tiebreakers.

Cumulative 2025 and 2026 Regular Season Records

Actual 2025 and 2026 regular season records for all the teams using for calculation:



Power Ranking 2026

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Tie-Breakers

Tiebreakers for #2-5 came down to FJUB tying in H2H with SQSQ at 2-1 each between the four teams with 0.706. Then according to our rules, we go for most categories won next, which was 93 for FJUB and 81 for SQSQ, giving FJUB the higher seed.

Then for #3, SQSQ had a 2-0 H2H record versus SPDE and SCRM, so they get that seed.

Finally, SPDE versus SCRM came down to a head to head matchup, which SPDE won in WK4, giving SPDE the last bye and relegating SCRM to have to play in the first round of the playoffs.

For tiebreaker #12 and #13, TRUO beat FUNK in WK14 head to head, giving them the higher seed and the final playoff spot.

Midseason 2026 Tiers

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It's actually three-fourths of the season through, but I've been away and so it's late, plus we're using AI again to write this! Let's see what tiers Chat GPT has for us!

We are roughly thirteen weeks into a seventeen-week regular season, the point where optimism has hardened into ideology and every roster decision now feels morally binding. The format remains brutal: sixteen teams, nine categories, a 21-game weekly cap, four byes, eight playoff slots, and four teams exiled to the long offseason. ODE—Offense, Defense, Efficiency—has entered the chat, offering cold structural truth with no regard for vibes, draft capital, or how hard you tried.


Tier I – The Bye Industrial Complex

CHMK Chunky Monkeys (10-2-1)

This roster does not scream dominance, which is what makes it terrifying. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Evan Mobley, and Alperen Şengün quietly control rebounds. Jamal Murray and Amen Thompson stabilize assists and points. Myles Turner and Jalen Smith hold the defensive line. Nothing bleeds. Nothing panics. They win field-goal percentage without trying and avoid tanking free-throw percentage by accident. ODE underrates them slightly, the standings do not. This is a team that wins categories the way adults pay taxes: on time and without drama.

FJUB Fat Jubas (10-3)

Built almost entirely from wings and Karl-Anthony Towns, this team lives on defense and discipline. Kawhi Leonard, Trey Murphy III, OG Anunoby, Peyton Watson, Bilal Coulibaly, Josh Green, Max Christie, and Jock Landale form a long, switchable perimeter machine. They rarely beat themselves, protect turnovers, and treat free throws like a personal brand. Offense comes and goes, but the category math keeps working. It is not flashy, but it is relentless, and it produces the kind of steady weekly 5–4 wins that accumulate into terrifying records.

ILCN IL Conceived (10-3)

This is the offensive juggernaut of the league. Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell set the tone, Paolo Banchero and Jaren Jackson Jr. finish the job, and Rudy Gobert cleans up the mess. Darius Garland and Jakob Poeltl lurk on injured reserve while Matas Buzelis waits ominously in the background. They dominate points and blocks and usually rebounds, but efficiency is a recurring adventure. Some weeks they torch the league. Other weeks they lose free-throw percentage and turnovers by Tuesday. The ceiling is championship-high. The floor is still a playoff team, just louder.


Tier II – Real Contenders with Personality Flaws

SPDE Spade (8-5)

Structurally, this is the best team in the league. Tyrese Maxey, Devin Booker, Victor Wembanyama, Chet Holmgren, Jarrett Allen, and Immanuel Quickley form a roster with no obvious weakness. ODE loves them because nothing collapses under pressure. They defend, they shoot efficiently, they block everything in sight. Injuries and early scheduling weirdness have kept them out of the top four, but in a neutral environment, this is a title favorite.

SWMP Swamp Dragons (9-4)

This team lives and dies by its medical chart. Nikola Jokić and Devin Vassell sitting on injured reserve have distorted what is otherwise a terrifying build around Paul George, Deandre Ayton, Zach LaVine, and Jalen Williams. When healthy, they overwhelm opponents with volume and balance. When not, they look human. ODE says contender. The injury report says “check again Thursday.”

SCRM Screamin Eagles (8-5)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards, Bam Adebayo, and Jalen Duren form a modern fantasy core built for category stability. They win assists and steals often, compete everywhere else, and rarely implode. The bench is thin, but the starters are real. They do not dominate any single category the way the Tier I teams do, but they also do not collapse in any. In a capped-games league, that makes them deeply dangerous.


Tier III – The Knife Fight

SQSQ Squirtle Squad (7-4-2)

James Harden, Derrick White, LeBron James, and DeMar DeRozan anchor a team that lives in the middle of every category. Neemias Queta, Payton Pritchard, and Isaiah Stewart round out a roster that wins free-throw percentage and assists reliably, survives everywhere else, and loses nothing catastrophically. The ties are annoying, but they reflect the reality: this team is always close. Not elite. Not weak. Just permanently inconvenient.

BUFF Buffy (7-6)

On paper, Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Brandon Ingram, Domantas Sabonis, C.J. McCollum, Andrew Wiggins, and Lauri Markkanen should be a juggernaut. In reality, the defense and stocks lag behind the star power. They score, they rebound, they shoot well enough, but steals and blocks are often donated to charity. A playoff team for sure. A bye team only in very specific timelines.

MELO Melo My Mind (6-6-1)

This roster runs entirely on vibes and shot creation. Jaylen Brown, Pascal Siakam, Brandon Miller, Kevin Durant, and RJ Barrett give the team nuclear scoring potential. When the shots fall, they look unstoppable. When they do not, the efficiency categories light on fire. The record is perfect for what the team is: talented, volatile, occasionally brilliant, occasionally unwatchable.

KSKT Krispy Kreme Team (6-7)

Cade Cunningham, Zion Williamson, Kristaps Porziņģis, Anfernee Simons, Michael Porter Jr., Andrew Nembhard, and Tyrese Haliburton on injured reserve form a blueprint for both success and frustration. Assists and points are strong. Health is fictional. If this team ever plays a full week intact, it jumps two tiers immediately. Until then, it lives in the narrow corridor between dangerous and disappointing.


Tier IV – The Bubble

SBUK So Buckets (5-8)

Everything revolves around Joel Embiid. When he plays, they win blocks and field-goal percentage and look competent. When he does not, the structure collapses into Franz Wagner trying his best. Ausar Thompson, Desmond Bane, and Collin Sexton provide secondary firepower, but the margin for error is gone. Still alive. Still uncomfortable.

FUNK Funk Coalition (4-9)

This is a rebuild disguised as a competitive roster. Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Reed Sheppard, Dylan Harper, and Jabari Smith Jr. represent the future. Jayson Tatum sits on injured reserve like a broken crown jewel. The present is educational. They lose points and rebounds almost on principle, survive turnovers, and treat wins as special occasions. The playoffs are technically possible, but only if chaos signs a short-term contract.


Tier V – The Spoiler Economy

SOUR Sour Snails (3-9-1)

Steph Curry and Scottie Barnes are real stars. Jimmy Butler is injured. Miles Bridges and Deni Avdija try to hold things together with duct tape. When Curry detonates, this team can still win a week. When he does not, it evaporates. Not climbing the standings, but perfectly capable of ruining someone else’s.

MEMM Memphis MonStars (3-10)

Ja Morant, Jordan Poole, Malik Monk, Nikola Vučević, and Bobby Portis form an offense-only experiment. They can randomly win points and assists in absurd fashion and lose field-goal percentage, steals, and turnovers just as dramatically. They are not consistent, but they are loud.

TRUO Truo (2-9-2)

De’Aaron Fox, Julius Randle, Shaedon Sharpe, Jusuf Nurkić, and Jalen Green headline a roster built entirely out of talented players who are deeply allergic to efficiency. This team wins points, loses percentages, and commits turnovers like a lifestyle choice. They will not climb. They will drag others down.

ABCX Another Bad Creation (2-10-1)

LaMelo Ball, Jaden Ivey, Bennedict Mathurin, Donovan Clingan, Draymond Green, and Josh Giddey represent five different timelines sharing one locker room. Some nights it looks like the future. Some nights it looks like preseason. A rebuild with enough chaos to occasionally flip a week for no reason at all.

2026: One Month In

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What an exciting NBA year already! Remember that we have new postseason and draft lottery rules. Apparently, some owners had no idea what the final changes were. And let me remind everyone to use their IR slots! Anyway, let’s take a look at how our current season is shaping up. [ ODE 2026 ]


TIER ONE

SPDE Spade (4-0)

CHMK Chunky Monkeys (3-0-1)

SBUK So Buckets (3-1)

SCRM Screamin Eagles (3-1)

FJUB Fat Jubas (3-1)

We could say that SPDE belong by themselves in a single team top tier, but a big injury to say, someone very very tall, could drag them back to the pack. For now however, they are the undisputed team to beat. And it’s not even close… Edit: Wemby is indeed hurt, and SPDE grabbed Luke Kornet for $20 FAAB. In all seriousness, we hope Wemby comes back soon because he's so fun to watch! And I don't want him to be another injury plagued big!

CHMK is also undefeated, and has everything clicking for the most part. We don’t see them falling out of top contention status for the rest of the season. It looks like the big-ball build is gonna work out! At least in the regular season. 

SBUK has some long term riser potential, pending Kyrie Irving and Joel Embiid’s health, but they are also concerningly ranked very in combined ODE. We’ll find out in another month if their fast start is real or not. Note: Ace Bailey has finally shown flashes, phew!

Speaking of rookies, SCRM’s Derik Queen has been doing some very interesting stuff down in New Orleans and there’s already plenty of evidence that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards are enough to give SCRM a sturdy title defense all season long. Long live the king!

FJUB has started off strong, with Kyshawn George being an early season revelation. However, injuries to Trae Young and OG Anunoby will put a dent in their short term upward trajectory, even as free agent pickup Brandon Williams is really starting to gain a nice role in Dallas. With pre-draft trade pickup Trey Murphy finally shaking off a cold start, FJUB could be dangerous once they are at full strength.


TIER TWO

MELO Melo My Mind (2-1-1)

SQSQ Squirtle Squad (1-1-2)

ILCN IL Conceived (2-2)

SWMP Swamp Dragons (2-2)

FUNK Funk Coalition (2-2)

This early on, there’s not a whole lot of separation between two or three wins, but for the purposes of this article, we’ll pretend these 0.500 teams are in a tier of their own.

MELO has a nice win over SBUK to hang their hat on and the (kind of shocking) glow up of sophomore Stephon Castle to give them an all-everything player to take over the injured Brandon Miller’s role. With Jaylen Brown, Kevin Durant, and Pascal Siakam all cooking, this team should be headed for bigger things once Miller comes back.

With one more tied matchup, SQSQ could break the single season record for ties. That’s pretty cool! By picking up a win versus SOUR last week, SQSQ also gets in the win column for the first time this year. It’s been tough sledding for SQSQ as it’s been James Harden and a whole bunch of underperformers—looking at you Derrick White and Payton Pritchard—while LeBron James and Anthony Davis chill out on the bench, so we’re not sure which way this team will be headed in coming weeks.

We’re focusing on ILCN for this week’s Game of the Week but we’ll just say that this team has too much top end talent to be a mere 0.500 team. Look for them to get closer to contention status, barring bad health. Note: We're still waiting on the Matas Buzelis fantasy explosion...

Similar to ILCN, SWMP has beaten the bad teams and lost to the good ones so far. Every week has been close though, as SWMP has either won 5-4 or lost 4-5. The continued absence of Jalen Williams and Paul George are big factors of course, but Nikola Jokic is basically a team unto himself. Add in Jalen Johnson as a versatile sidekick and those two should keep SWMP afloat.

Another 0.500 team that has no wins against winning teams, FUNK was recently rated the worst combined ODE in the league, but has also been chock full of surprise as a team of semi-competitive youngsters. Even with VJ Edgecombe cooling off significantly—plus Dylan Harper hitting injured reserve—the rise of Kon Knueppel has been the latest bright spot for a team that’s punching above their lack of experience. Also, is this Reed Sheppard we see playing crunch time in Houston?!?



TIER THREE

KSKT Krispy Kreme Team (1-3)

MEMM Memphis MonStars (1-3)

SOUR Sour Snails (1-3)

BUFF Buffy (1-3)

We were worried about KSKT being winless to start the season but they secured a win against BUFF last week. With Tyrese Haliburton gone for the year and Zion Williamson already Zion-ing, this team is not going to be 100% this year. However, Cade Cunningham and the scoring of Michael Porter Jr., Norm Powell, and Andrew Nembhard should be enough to take KSKT out of the cellar soon. We think.

Securing one win out of the gate—almost two!—has to be a boon for new team MEMM. With injuries galore up and down the roster, plus the bad attitude of Ja Morant, it must be a relief for this budding franchise to at least get in the wins column so fast. MEMM's best player has been thirty-five year old Nikola Vucevic so far, but with Morant and Kawhi Leonard not yet pulling their weight, a second win could be further off in the distance.

When was the last time SOUR started off this poorly? The eternal big bad of SlamNation is showing some weakness early on, even as they’ve unearthed young gems like Ajay Mitchell, rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner, and soon to be G-League MVP Yang Hansen. Steph Curry is as explosive as ever and the wing combo of Deni Avdija and Miles Bridges might be the most underrated fantasy duo around. We’re not worried for SOUR at all this season, as they are sure to rise up in the standings soon.

BUFF’s lone win this season has been against FJUB, which is a quality win that none of the other teams above them in the rankings can say they have. Post-draft acquisition Lauri Markkanen has been on absolute fire to start the season and with Coby White back in the lineup, BUFF could look to take off soon—assuming Jalen Brunson is not too hurt. BUFF has a lot of depth and usable players across the board and we'll find out how they really measure up this next week. A statement win versus SCRM could prove that they belong up a tier.


TIER FOUR

ABCX Another Bad Creation (0-3-1)

TRUO Truo Thien (0-3-1)

Well this is certainly interesting. Our two remaining winless teams both have a tie! ABCX has been closer to a win though, coming just a few 3PT short of beating FJUB recently, but “almost” isn’t enough. Which of these two teams can pick up a win first? Please don’t tell me we’ll be on winless watch for too long!

ABCX is missing LaMelo Ball, as usual, but the new look backcourt of Josh Giddey and Keyonte George have been spectacular. The swap of Giddey for Ja Morant seems to have been a win and even though there’s not much going on in the frontcourt besides Ivica Zubac, at least there’s a whole crop of young guards to push the ball and play at a fun pace.

As for TRUO, they have five backup centers on their roster, averaging between 3.7 and 9.8 points. Of course, the centers that matter here are the sophomore duo of Kel’el Ware and the just returned Zach Edey. Both should average low end double-doubles. The bright spots on this team are Julius Randle’s hot shooting, Shaedon Sharpe’s offense, and hopefully the healthy return of De’Aaron Fox. There’s not a lot of help coming off the injured list so TRUO will have to really fight to get out of the cellar.