2011 Draft Position Analysis

Does draft position equate to winning? Somehow the owners with the middle draft picks came out worse for wear during the season. The three worst teams last year drafted #6, 8 and 9 overall in 2010. Despite picking at decent positions, Eric A, Jimmy, and Chris combined for a 11-40-3 record. One factor could have been transactions, as Eric-A and Chris both had very low transaction moves during the season. Or perhaps their poor inaguaral season points to the drop off in top tier superstars from the #5 position on?

Interestingly, the next couple picks of this year's draft are owned entirely by the low teens drafters of last year (#10, 11, 13, 12). After that, any patterns devolve but it was interesting to look at where a team finished relative to their draft opportunity. For example, Eric-L, Pierre, and Mikey drafted the last three positions in the 2010 (#16, 14, 15 respectively) but performed at a 33-20-1 clip. The extreme outlier here is Mikey, who drafted second to last yet compiled the second best regular season record in the league. Impressive work!

Thien's team drafted #3 overall but he finished with only a .500 season, and he was mostly unaffected by injury to his top guys -- unlike Evan who lost #2 overall Chris Paul pretty early on. Thien did rally to win the Toilet Bowl but his regular season was certainly a cause of stress as his team performed erratically throughout.

Trieu, with the number one overall pick, won the whole damn thing, and faced off in the Finals versus the number two overall pick, Evan. However it's not that simple as Evan's team was actually only .500 during the regular season (before CP3 returned and a trade pushed Evan to a strong post-season). Trieu did have the benefit of drafting Lebron James but it can't be said that was the only reason he rose to the top. His team, and subsequent draft picks, were incredibly prescient and made for a dominating force. I mean, he did scoop up Stephen Curry in the 5th round, and now Curry is easily a second round pick after his stellar rookie campaign. So does draft position determine who will win? The answer is: "who knows?" But it sure is fun to analyze these things in the aftermath.

Agent Zero is back!

Coach Flip Saunders said Wednesday that Arenas was fined an undisclosed amount by the team for claiming to have a sore knee before the Wizards' game against Atlanta on Tuesday night.

Arenas said after the game that he pretended to have a bum knee to give teammate Nick Young a chance to start.

"I told [Young] I'd sacrifice playing tonight so he can get some time in because I know he's kind of frustrated he's not getting a chance to crack the [small forward] position, especially since we're going three guards," Arenas said Tuesday, smiling. "So I told him I'll go and fake an injury or say something's wrong with me so you can start."
-Gilbert Arenas fined for faking injury

2011 Keeper Analysis

What a difference a year makes. After one full season of playing, there were quite a few difficult cuts as owners were tasked with whittling down their rosters to just six keepers. My interest lay in seeing which were the high priced veterans or promising young guys ultimately deemed not good enough. Only four teams stayed pat, having drafted "perfectly." Thien, Jimmy, Chris, and Eric-L all elected to keep their first six selections from the 2010 draft. Technically, so did Trieu but he also has a bonus keeper due to his trade with Mikey.

Who were the toughest cuts? Well out of the first two rounds, nobody was tossed back into the redraft rosters. But Korea Korea's GM Steve decided that Vince Carter wasn't up to snuff and released him despite having invested a high third rounder on him. Similarly, Alvin was on the verge of cutting his third round pick, Caron Butler, but managed to trade him the night before the 2011 draft. Both decisions indicate how far Carter and Butler have fallen in fantasy circles. The other third rounder to hit the chopping block was Pierre's Ben Gordon, which doesn't come as much of a surprise after his lackluster season.

Other big names cut maliciously by their general managers: Mehmet Okur, Baron Davis, Shawn Marion (4th round), Richard Hamilton, Andris Biedrins, Jermaine O'Neal (5th), Leandro Barbosa, Mario Chalmers, Greg Oden, Thaddeus Young, Michael Redd (6th).

What about the other end of the spectrum? Five undrafted free agents made keeper rosters this year: Darren Collison, Jrue Holiday, JaVale McGee, Marcus Thornton, and Serge Ibaka. They all have youth and tremendous upside, and prove that paying close attention during the season can have huge benefits. Wait, that should be obvious. As a starting five, these guys wouldn't be all that bad, especially as they mature.

Other low end draft picks that fought their way into owners' keeper hearts. Corey Maggette (12th round), James Harden (11th), Jamal Crawford (9th), Andray Blatche, Lamar Odom (8th), Jason Terry and Joakim Noah (7th). And there there's Yao Ming, who was a huge X-factor heading into last season. Steve had the foresight to pluck Mr. Yao in the 9th round and even at twenty four minutes a game this year, he should be worth the wait.

Pre-Draft Trades

With rumors swirling before the draft date, owners scrambled to adjust their keeper rosters. Despite hopes of some big names being shuffled around, and one or two really high caliber players being on the trading block, in the end, the biggest name moved was Pogiboys' forward Caron Butler. Butler, a third round selection last year has been exchanged for Half Man Half Asian's third round pick this year.

Alvin must be disappointed that one of the cornerstones of his franchise just one year ago was close to the keeper chopping block. Butler did average 15 PTS, 5.4 REB, and 1.8 STL after his mid-season trade to the Mavericks but his potential as a franchise guy is clearly over. From Oliver's end, he gets an upgrade over Rip Hamilton and adds a still strong STLs guy.

Earlier in the week, the Sour Snails and Nande Reburonsan also made a move, albeit with no actual players trading places permanently. Trieu's team was too deep and he'd been looking to hold onto more than six keepers so paid Mikey a 1st, 2nd, and 6th round pick in this year's draft in order to receive a 3rd, 5th, and F Danilo Gallinari back. A savvy move like this allows the Snails to keep their rising star without having to risk the chance of not getting him back in the 2011 draft. Nande will also be in the enviable position of having quite a few early round picks in order to increase the depth of his own roster. We are predicting more trades of this type in the future as they seem to benefit teams both short and long on keeper talent.

The official start of the 2011 draft is right around the corner!

2011 Keepers