Weekly: Jan 13

We looked at some hot teams last week, let’s take a peek at three of our bottom teams and offer some solutions, besides raising their Games Played of course...

Snack Bears (4-9)
It’s been a long time since we looked at Brandon’s team, all the way back to the beginning of the season since we first introduced ODE ratings. Two months ago Snack Bears was 2-1 and seemingly headed for a decent campaign. Well, since then they’ve dropped to the fourth-worst record in the league and are headed straight for another Toilet Bowl showing. A recent WK13 loss to formerly winless Another Bad Creation doesn’t bode well for their season moving forward. Snack's ODE splits for the past month are 12/12/11, highlighted by a strange fact: Snack Bears have been leading the league in STL! They’re also not terrible in AST and that leads us to suspect that De’Aaron Fox’s breakout season is really pacing this team.

There’s actually plenty of talent here, as Fox, Bradley Beal, and Blake Griffin are playing about as well as can be expected, with all of them having career or near career years — Beal and Blake average about six assists each, a lovely bonus for out-of-position playmaking. Behind those three are rookies Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Wendell Carter as promising keepers — even if they are oftentimes unplayable and erratic — plus the continued scoring prowess of Tim Hardaway Jr. Heck, there’s even been flashes of hope from Bam Adebayo and Jaylen Brown both, as well as the veteran presences of PJ Tucker and Ed Davis lurking in the rotation.

It’s mostly been bad management, as Brandon came in fourth-worst in our recent owner rating analysis. With low games Games Played and no moves since November, we think a slight focus on coaching, as well as cutting the corpse of Jordan Bell and digging for some free agents could lift this team in the coming weeks. Grabbing one win during the next month — four straight matchups against potential playoff teams — would be a coup, and then the schedule lets up near the end of the season, giving Brandon a chance to see how his Bears will measure up against potential Toilet Bowl opponents. We knew this team was building for the future with Kristaps Porzingis lingering on injured reserve, but with the right moves we think Snack is well positioned for a surprise Toilet Bowl run as well.

Team Cameltoe (3-10)
Coach Felipe has submitted 8/13 weeks of GP mess ups and is ranked as the current second-worst organization in the league. With the lowest Games Played in Slam, this team is basically hamstringing itself. Their ODE splits are 15/16/13 and their net rating is last in the league. But we are not here to bury, we are here to inspire! After starting off 0-6, there were back-to-back victories against respectable opponents mid-season, and a 3-1 stretch from WK7-10. There’s hope there!

We haven’t seen any free agent moves from GM Felipe since early November, but the good news is that one of those pickups, Dewayne Dedmon, has emerged as a very effective stretch-center and could have some value as trade bait. Meanwhile, let’s check in on the prospects for this team even as they slow grow around the fantasy force that is Anthony Davis.

The five (unproven) young guys are Marvin Bagley III, Harry Giles, Josh Jackson, Malik Monk, and Michael Porter Jr — the latter isn’t looking likely to play this season. The twin baby Kings, Bagley and Giles, are getting 21.7 and 16.1 minutes each over the past month. With more minutes, Bagley is pretty much a surefire double-double threat, but it’s hard to tell if Giles has a future as a keeper. Monk drops 1.7 3PT in 19.0 minutes a game over the past month and is averaging double digits, so there is potential here for a Buddy Hield-like growth curve. Keeper? And what about Jackson, who has emerged from an early sophomore funk to start putting up 15.0 PTS, 4.3 AST, with 2.3 STL and almost a three and a block per game. That’s impressive stuff!

Overall that’s Davis, Hield, Hassan Whiteside, plus Bagley, Jackson, and Monk for possible 2020 keepers. Is that a playoff contender next year? Maybe? We’re pretty down on Cameltoe’s Toilet Bowl chances this year because there’s just too much youth here, but after this week’s matchup against So Buckets, Cameltoe will face off against four straight Toilet Bowl bound opponents, including re-matchups against Hilt the Stilt and Another Bad Creation. We’ll see where this team stands in a month. And even if Cameltoe is tanking for Zion, Felipe will still need to pull it together by the end of the season to get his team in shape for a chance at a high draft pick next year. Let’s see if Cameltoe management is up for the challenge!

Hilt the Stilt (3-10)
It’s been a tough rookie year for new owner Dave. His team is second-to-last in Games Played and he's tied with Felipe for 8/13 capped out weeks. Not to mention there’s been no free agent moves at all for Dave, so we’d love to see at least one pickup soon. (Can we suggest cutting Terry Rozier?) Overall, we’re not sure if Dave is losing on purpose as part of a bigger strategy or if the rookie shakes have hit him hard. Last time we looked at Hilt, we said we were semi-impressed by their two undermanned wins but after a scorching 1-9 stretch — their lone win was versus Cameltoe in WK9 — we can safely say that this squad is headed for a Toilet Bowl showing.

But here’s what’s interesting, of the three losing teams we looked at this week, Hilt has one huge strength: they are the fourth-rated defense in ODE. Sure, their offensive and efficiency ratings are dead last but being sixth in REB, sixth in BLK, and ninth in STL, even with such low Games Played, is impressive. What’s going on?! Say hello to Derrick White, the very Derrick White we dismissed six weeks ago as “.. unlikely to be the answer [at point guard].” Well, White is the answer for the Spurs and Hilt the Stilt and he’s been throwing down 1.1 BLK from the point guard position. Add in the emergence of rookie Mikal Bridges and the two young guys are putting up 2.7 STL and 2.1 BLK per game, giving Hilt a stifling defensive lineup of White, Bridges, Victor Oladipo, Andre Drummond, Steven Adams, and Danny Green -- plus the oft-unused Jarrett Allen.

With such a strong defense, where is the last-rated offense going to come from? Well, Josh Richardson is still flinging up shots, and rookie Kevin Knox is emerging as the all-offense counterpoint to Bridges’ all-defense stats, which is nice to see. And while there are some awful FG% chuckers on this team, that can’t be helped right now. We still really like the team as a whole and we think some of that defense and young upside could be moved for a touch more offense. If Coach Dave gets his act together, we see a potential dark horse Toilet Bowl contender.

WK13 Highlights:

• A rematch of our title game from last season came down to free throws as Sour Snails narrowed edged out Chunky Monkeys, dealing Monkeys their third straight loss of the season.
• Funk Coalition snuck out a close game by one AST as they took down Squirtle Squad in a matchup of trade partners from last week, making it six wins in a row for Funk.
• Fob Stars also stayed hot by taking down So Buckets by one AST as well, or six REB, or 0.002 FT%. It was a super close game and Jimmy is now 5-0-1 in his last month and a half.
• Swamp Dragons continues to take care of business, going 5-0-1 over their past six weeks, and are the second-best team by net rating over the past month, surpassing Sour Snails.
• IL Conceived took down Team Thien / Knockout Venom, who have been in an injury-plagued free fall and haven’t won a game in a month as they slide to the edge of the playoff picture. Meanwhile Frank is 3-1 in his last month of games.
• Top five teams last month by ODE net rating: Chunky Monkeys, Swamp Dragons, Sour Snails, Another Bad Creation (!), Fob Stars