Two-Thirds Season: Top Four

With ten weeks down — we’re currently in an extended WK11 due to All-Star break — it’s time to look at how our teams are shaping up so far this year. Shockingly, there’s only five more weeks to go, and the playoffs are just a month or so away! We’ll take a look at our top four teams, the bottom four, and then the other eight teams next week.

SWMP Swamp Dragons (8-1-1)

After an aborted 2020 campaign, SWMP picked up right where they left off last season as they continue to dispense beatdowns on the rest of the league. In addition, SWMP are 2-1 in their matchups versus the other three top contenders this season — FJUB, SOUR, CHMK — with their lone loss coming by one block against CHMK in WK6.

Our new advanced analytics system had SWMP as the top rated team coming into the season and they still hold down the top spot, along with a league leading ODE rating and splits of 2/1/3. So who can slow down this juggernaut? Well, there was the recent tie to ICLN that raised some eyebrows, as SWMP had to dig deep into the rotation to play someone named Saben Lee. (Seriously, who is that?) Over the past month, SWMP has somehow dropped down to thirteenth on offense and just league average on defense. Their PTS have really suffered while their 3PT have dropped low as well.

Of course, this could all be a temporary blip as the roster is chock-full of talent. Nikola Jokic and Paul George are both at or near their career highs, Christian Wood has further cemented his promise as a do-everything big man, and even 2021 RD3.4 pick Mike Conley has returned to form this year — finally making it as an NBA All-Star this season.

While Deandre Ayton has taken a step back overall — taking Ayton first in 2019 over Luka Doncic could haunt SWMP for two decades — RD3.14 find Chris Boucher is providing insane BLK and 3PT numbers, possibly making Ayton expendable. Conspiracy theory: Was CHMK’s advice to take Ayton over Doncic Evan’s greatest power move to keep his cousin away from a ring?

In addition to everything listed above, there’s also ultra-efficient Khris Middleton to tie everything together for our 2021 title favorites. With the potential return of D’Angelo Russell to the court, SWMP should have an excellent shot at their first Slam title this season.

FJUB Fat Jubas (8-2)

Nipping closely at SWMP’s heels are the surprising FJUB, who entered the season as a solid but not quite contending team, and are now squarely in the conversation for a proper championship chase. Led by the big-impact, small-stature backcourt of Fred VanVleet and Chris Paul, FJUB are on a five game winning streak and are peaking as the second-best ODE team, with splits of 5/2/7. Essentially punting PTS and FG%, FJUB combines a league-leading defense with efficiency from the line, low turnovers, and impressive three-point shooting.

There’s a distinct dearth of rebounding on this team — as Myles Turner and Brook Lopez are both notorious bigs who can’t grab boards for some reason — but the trade off of Jrue Holiday for Tobias Harris indicates that GM Eric knows that securing misses are part of the defensive equation. The answer could be playing free-agent acquisition Darius Bazley more, as the twenty-year old is capable of leading FJUB in rebounds, ahead of Harris and Robert Covington.

Feeling perky about his title chances, Eric has made more than just the Harris move so far this season. FJUB shipped out Jonas Valanciunas and Elfrid Payton for Malcolm Brogdon back in January, and the recent acquisitions of Ricky Rubio and Seth Curry — in exchange for Kevin Huerter — should replenish their depth.

We’re looking hard at a WK13 matchup versus SOUR to assess FJUB’s true contender status, but if FJUB can somehow win a title this season, it would have been an impressive eight years between championships!

SOUR Sour Snails (7-2-1)

Of course, the road to the 2021 title still goes through Sour Town, and to no one’s surprise, the healthy returns of Kevin Durant and Steph Curry have taken SOUR back to the top. Despite semi-stumbling out of the gate 2-1-1 — with a first week loss to ABCX and a WK4 tie versus SCRM — there’s no question Trieu’s team is still the one to beat for any true contender. With a current matchup with CHMK this week, and future nationally broadcasted games versus FJUB and SWMP in WK13 and WK16 respectively, we’re gonna find out just how scary this version of SOUR is.

On paper, this is possibly SOUR’s weakest title contender, with Curry and Durant flanked by Zach LaVine and Pascal Siakam and a supporting cast that is less than fearsome. Yeah, Richaun Holmes is quietly throwing up double-doubles and PJ Washingon, Harrison Barnes, and Serge Ibaka have all been pretty good, but the pure star power of SOUR seems to be a bit diminished this year.

Then again, SOUR are still the second-best ODE team on the season and have even elevated themselves to the top spot over the past month, with splits of 3/4/2. They are basically top-three in every category save REB, AST, and BLK, where they are about league average. Still, as is usually the case, there’s not a whole lot of teams who can match up to SOUR, and even with the possibility of Curry or Durant missing games, SOUR is the team to beat until they’re not!

CHMK Chunky Monkeys (7-3)

After coming out the gate with five wins in six games, CHMK might be sputtering a bit, as they’ve dropped two games recently, to KSKT and SQSQ. Are the father-son duo CHMK’s Kryptonite? Maybe!

With three Russell Conference regular season titles in the past four years — and their still shiny title from 2018 — CHMK knows they can win, but do they have their sights set on a championship this year? Trading away LeBron James pre-draft indicated a sell off of veteran assets but then CHMK moved an in-his-prime Clint Capela and young talent Keldon Johnson for Jonas Valanciunas two months ago — while securing KSKT’s 2022 RD1 and RD2 as well — which would seem like a turn toward contention again. Make up your mind Evan!

On one hand, there is the very young core of Bam Adebayo, Collin Sexton, Mikal Bridges, and potentially Thomas Bryant. But then the heart of the team is still James Harden and Kyle Lowry, who are both on significantly different timelines. CHMK has been slightly above average in combined ODE this season, but their offense has taken a bit hit with the loss of King James, and their floor spacing has become almost non-existent, as they rank second-to-last in 3PT this season. Still, CHMK is not to be trifled with, as they project to be the third-best team the rest of the way, according to our advanced analytics.

So I guess we’ll find out as the trade deadline nears if CHMK is serious about making a title push this year, or if they’ll possibly move Lowry — or Harden?! — for more future focused assets.