The Snail and the Hare

Way back when, in pre-season, we thought the Sour Snails had followed the Draft Primer to a T and set themselves up for a successful season. Four losses (and heading towards another one this week) later, the Snails are struggling. Why? Well, their commitment to small ball seems to be leaving them short each week. But is it small ball that's the problem? Or underperforming players? Let's take a look.

Keep in mind that Snails haven't had Steve Nash in the lineup in WK4; he subsequently played well but was supposed to be hurt. Obviously, a player of Nash's talents would have changed a few things -- at least rankings wise.

PTS, AST, REB: The Snails need to dominate in PTS and AST. Pre-season indications pointed to the fact that they would struggle scoring, and that's been the truth. Iverson is a scoring machine (32 per), Wally Szczerbiak is having a great year (20 per), and Steve Nash has been scoring more than expected (20 per). However, Ron Artest (15), Jason Richardson (16), Stephen Jackson (12) and Mike James (11) have been all been a bit disappointing. This team needs more scoring from everyone, Iverson can't do it all. Passing wise, the bulk of the work was slated to fall to Nash and Iverson. Nash is at an extra-healthy 10.75 assists per game but Iverson is down to about 7 per game, as he no longer runs point guard in Philly. After these two, that's it on the assists front. Mike James averages about 4 per game, and he's the next best passer. That's not gonna do it. Nash can cover a lot of holes, but the Snails need to dominate in AST to at least have a chance of winning. This team is last in REB by a wide margin, but that's by design.

STL, BLK, 3PT: The Snails are excellent at steals. Not outrageous, but excellent. With Larry Hughes still banged up, those STL numbers won't be dominant yet, but Iverson, Jackson, and most of all, Ron Artest (2.8 per) can all pick a pocket. Artest almost has more STL than he does AST (34 to 38). Ridiculous. If Hughes can come back and contribute here, the Snails won't have to worry about the STL category. Shooting from beyond the arc is also a Snails strength. Again, they're not the best team(s) in the league at it, but they are good enough to win most weeks. Blocks? Ha, what blocks?

FG%, FT%, TO: Nobody expects to win FG% with small ball. The Snails have the luxury of not worrying about poor shooting. Iverson, Mike James, S Jackson, J Richardson, M Peterson, and most of all, Ron Artest (38.6%), would be FG% liabilities on any other team -- not this one. You know what's weird? The Snails are ranked in the top three in TO. They don't turn the ball over much. Aside from Iverson and Nash, everyone either (attempts to) put the ball in the bucket or they hold onto the rock. Not bad right? Maybe this is a hidden strength? What isn't a strength, but should be, is the Snails' free throw shooting. A team loaded with guards and shooters should be better than middle of the pack in FT%. Artest, Richardson, and Rudy Gay are all under 70% from the line. Hakim Warrick, Stephen Jackson, and Ryan Gomes aren't much better either. This team needs some standout FT% guys, like you know, ten Steve Nash's (90.7%).

Bench: The bench is young and talented but hardly usable. Martell Webster can shoot the three ball but isn't quite good enough to crack the starting lineup yet. Rajon Rondo, an energizer on the court but not doing a whole lot in very limited minutes. Free agent find Paul Millsap had a huge few games while AK47 was out, but now he's back to the Utah bench. Still, the numbers he put up during that span put a few teams on notice (double doubles with BLK and beautiful percentages). Huge upside here. Larry Hughes has been injured for a few games already, but he was looking resurgent next to Lebron this year. The points, steals, and threes were all coming in bunches before he went down. Normally, if Nash wasn't hurt, Hakim Warrick or Ryan Gomes would be on the bench. Right now Stevie's cheering on the starters.

The Snails had a splendid WK1 with huge PTS, AST, STL and 3PT. Their numbers that week would likely have set new records, and it was all done over only 31 games. Plus they snatched rising star Hakim Warrick off the wire. Since then however, they've been in collapse. Who knew that WK1 would be the closest the Snails come to victory (they lost FT%)? If you only play to win 5 cats, you better win those 5 categories right? Or at least four of them, and take a few losses just due to bad weeks or matchups. Well, the Snails are regularly losing 6-3, meaning they aren't up to par on at least two of their coveted five categories. What can be done to make the Snails a winning team -- which we most certainly thought they would be heading into the season?

Dr Jon says: This team needs a bit of tweaking to win. I'm still a believer in small ball, especially for a team that has so much promise, but the Snails do have a few anchors weighing them down. The key here is to concentrate, really concentrate, on just PTS-AST-STL-3PT-FT%. You know what that means right? Time for some trades! First off, Rudy Gay, Hakim Warrick, Ryan Gomes, and Paul Millsap don't fit this team. They are all talented and up-and-coming, but they don't contribute in the main categories. The Snails should trade their potential for some production if they can. The one the hang onto here is Gay, a rising star who despite terrible shooting numbers, can still contribute in STL (and BLK) even at such a young age. Warrick, Gomes, and Millsap are forwards that do forwardy type things. Not useful here.

Rajon Rondo and Martell Webster? Tough to say. Martell should help soon with his superior shooting, but Rondo isn't much of a scorer and hasn't gotten the playing time to contribute AST or STL. Both are projects in waiting. The biggest disappointment of the season so far is shooting guard Morris Peterson, who has turned into a (poor) three point specialist. Two threes a game is nice, but 40.0% shooting, 12 points a game, and losing the starter's job in Toronto is not. Let's hope Peterson gets a trade out of O'Canada so he can rejuvenate his box scores and become Kevin Martin-lite.

Wally World is playing out of his mind, and maybe he can keep it up, maybe not. It's a toss up here since Wally World is exactly the type of player this team needs. Amazing percentages, great scorer, and doesn't turn the ball over. His value could be at an all time high. I'm not sure what the demand for Wally is, but he's a beast this year.

The Snails need to commit to a plan. Either grow and become balanced, and look forward to a long term plan, or go for broke and keep on tinkering with small ball. The guys with terrible FT% need to go. As much as we love Artest, he has a ton of trade value and terrible FT%. Maybe Artest can be moved? Hughes' return should be able to make up for those awesome STL numbers, and really, Artest shoots so many FT, he's killing this team. Same with Jason Richardson, who is just rounding into shape (and whose all-around game is very valuable and underrated), but his FT% is terrible. His career numbers from the line is 69.2%, and he's worse this year. Artest and Richardson are both legitimate stars and should bring back legitimate stars in return.

Every player on this roster needs to help out the team without detracting from it in order for the Snails to win. The main need is to crank those PTS up. Find another 20+ point scorer and trade for him --- and make sure he can hit good FT%. In addition, all of the supporting cast needs to put up good 3PT, STL, or AST. Warrick and Gomes should not be in the lineup; to be fair, those are Nash and Hughes' spots -- their return could help a lot. But it's maybe time to focus on PG and SG and shooting types in trades or free agency. Snatch the best players available off the wire, but then move them for useful parts. One more pass first point guard would help secure AST too.

This team isn't terrible by any stretch of the imagination, and we think that the foundation is there for a winner.

The trade I'd look to target? Richardson or Artest for Rip Hamilton and Jarrett Jack. And then go find a dominant 3PT guy, maybe even Raja Bell or Quentin Richardson, if Eric-A will part with either one. Rip will score and hit free throws, Jack will add STL, AST, and great FT% also. Makes sense for both teams. The other player this team needs is Barbosa, if they can get him.


And in the spirt of the holidays, here's a shopping list for the Snails:

High end: Vince Carter, Lamar Odom, Ray Allen, Michael Redd, Chauncey Billups

Mid range: Leandro Barbosa, Kevin Martin, Mike Bibby, Deron Williams, Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler, Andre Iguodala, Ben Gordon, Manu Ginobili, Corey Maggette, Sam Cassell, Rip Hamilton, Jarrett Jack, Luke Ridnour, Mike Miller, Monta Ellis, Kirk Hinrich, Andres Nocioni, Ricky Davis, Steve Francis, Raja Bell, Quentin Richardson

Low: JR Smith, Cuttino Mobley, Fred Jones, Mo Williams, Kyle Korver, Derek Fisher, Tyronne Lue, Damon Jones, Sebastien Telfair, Marcus Williams, Chucky Atkins, David Lee, Earl Boykins