Two-Thirds: Next Four

Looking at the second half of the potential playoff suitors, we have MELO winning their WK11 matchup to move ahead of the the rest of the crowded pack. MELO is the only Russell Conference team represented here, with ILCN, SQSQ, and SCRM all hailing from the Chamberlain Conference. [ Top Four | Bottom Four ]

MELO Melo My Mind (7-4)

We predicted that Jack’s rookie season would be a successful one but they’ve outshone expectations by starting the season off 4-1 and cementing themselves as a playoff contender. Three straight losses after that first month did give MELO pause, but they’ve recovered with two more victories right before the All-Star break.

Jaylen Brown emerged as an All-Star this season, and he now gives MELO and incredible backcourt of Bradley Beal, DeAaron Fox, and Brown. (Recall that Fox and Brown came over for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and OG Anunoby, which now looks slightly tipped in MELO’s favor.) Oh and there’s also Buddy Hield, no slouch himself.

On the season, MELO has an ODE rating of 4/9/11 behind tremendous 3PT shooting, excellent PTS, and a nice bit of thievery, ranking sixth overall in STL. What they’ve been lacking is mostly AST and BLK, and both of their percentages are less than league average.

During the past month, MELO’s defense has taken a tumble to the bottom of the league though as Andre Drummond got sent home from Cleveland to await a new NBA destination. (Strangely, Nikola Vucevic is only averaging a paltry 0.6 BLK this season.) Into the defensive breach steps Dwight Howard, who may not get an elevated role in Philadelphia, as the Sixers may start to be more spare with Joel Embiid’s minutes.

And for the long term, MELO will have 2021 RD1.2 James Wiseman, who looks legit and promising as a future franchise piece. That’s seven outright keepers, meaning MELO could even package for a trade eventually. Good problems to have!

The only blemish for MELO so far has been the low Games Played ranking — they have the second lowest GP in the league. While there have been no outright lineup violations, MELO has only fit in 22GP in four out of five weeks from WK6-10, which is flirting with disaster. Could it be rookie head coaching woes, a series of injuries, or something else? We’ll see in the next month of MELO can become a dark horse title contender but so far the future looks great here for a team that is both deep and young!

ILCN IL Conceived (6-4-1)

What does it take to go from fringe playoff contender to fringe championship contender? How about hitting on two huge picks in 2021 RD2.8 and RD4.3 Jerami Grant and Malik Beasley?! GM Frank proves his drafting chops yet again by hitting on Grant, who is now the man in Detroit and proving that he was right to leave Denver. While Beasley has been less than a role model in his personal life, his impressive PTS and 3PT makes him a perfect swingman for ILCN and helps to offset the loss of Jaren Jackson Jr. to IR for most of the season. (At this point, can Jackson ever stay healthy?)

ILCN started the season off 6-2, before going 0-1-1 in recent weeks. However, all of those matchups were close and against surging teams so it speaks well of ILCN’s dark horse title chances. Led by Luka Doncic, ILCN has the league’s top ranked offense and a more than serviceable defense. Sure, their FG% and TO are terrible, but that’s to be expected.

Enes Kanter has been a double-double machine while Draymond Green has returned to his triple-double ways. Plus it’s been a Poku Party as rookie Aleksej Pokusevski has started to get major minutes in Cleveland. How high can ILCN go? There’s two more matchups left against top contenders — WK13 versus CHMK and WK15 versus FJUB — but it looks like we’ll get to see this team of the future compete for a ring right now.

SQSQ Squirtle Squad (6-5)

More was expected from SQSQ this season, as they made a bold pre-draft move for LeBron James, hoping to cash in on last year’s first year finish. Instead, SQSQ started the season off with three straight losses and it’s been streaky ever since.

SQSQ’s fourth and third ranked offensive and defensive ratings are stellar but their last place rating in FT% and TO means they’re starting each matchup off with two lost categories. Aside from AST, SQSQ hasn’t been top three in any category this season, and it looks like Giannis Antetokounmpo and LeBron have an equal chance of heading to the Toilet Bowl as they do to the postseason.

Most of SQSQ’s 2021 draft came up a bust, with DeMarcus Cousins out of a job, Bogdan Bogdanovich barely returning to play, and rookie Patrick Williams already cut. At least SQSQ hasn’t stood pat, as they’ve swung some deals during the season, moving Tobias Harris for Jrue Holiday, Gary Trent Jr. for Mason Plumlee (a re-acquire from an in-draft trade), and Daniel Theis for Malik Monk. And there has been the return of John Wall to fantasy relevance, along with good seasons from Lonzo Ball and Alec Burks.

Unfortunately, unless SQSQ can really pick it up, they are likely out of the championship picture after moving all in with King James.

SCRM Screamin Eagles (5-5-1)

The second of our three new teams, SCRM has battling around 0.500 for most of the season, losing to the top teams and winning against the creampuffs. SCRM is just inside the playoff picture but with three tough matchups coming up, they could drop out without a strong finish.

This is a team built for the future though, with Anthony Davis and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the way. SCRM boasts a top two ranking in STL and have the best TO in the land. Their defense is in good shape though, with Davis, OG Anunoby, Dejounte Murray, and Mitchell Robinson putting the stops on foes.

What SCRM don’t have is a lot of offense, as they are near the bottom in PTS and AST. Norm Powell has been a revelation, and he joins Gilgeous-Alexander and Davis as 20+ ppg scorers, but that hasn’t been enough to lift SCRM out of a bottom two offensive rating.

With just one more win, SCRM will have already tied what previous owner HSTL was able to muster together in a much longer season. With the chance to add more talent to an impressive core, SCRM should be headed to the playoffs as soon as next season! 

Two-Thirds Season: Bottom Four

Continuing our two-thirds of the season series, here are the bottom four teams at WK10 of the season. [ Two-Thirds Season: Top Four ]

KSKT Krispy Kreme (3-7)

Technically, KSKT is only bottom four due to a tie-break — with FUNK — but it’s been a rough rookie year for KSKT either way. They are not mathematically out of playoff contention, but with only six weeks left to go, KSKT will have to make up a lot of ground to sneak into the playoffs. For a future focused team, a nice showing in the Toilet Bowl would definitely seem to be more important.

KSKT sputtered out of the gate with five straight losses — including matchups with FJUB and SWMP, but have found their footing in recent weeks, with a 3-2 record and a highlight win versus CHMK in WK7. Looking further ahead, KSKT likely has their sights set on a WK13 matchup versus SQSQ, which should start a long tradition of compelling father-son face-offs.

GM Matt has been quick to action, having already participated in four trades and brought in the likes of Mason Plumlee, Jonas Valanciunas (both since traded away), Elfrid Payton, Clint Capela, Keldon Johnson, and Gary Trent Jr. The cost has been Donte DiVincenzo and Malcolm Brogdon and most importantly, a 2022 RD1 and RD2 that are owed CHMK. With the likelihood that KSKT is headed to the Toilet Bowl, it could be a prime pick for someone else that KSKT will be playing for.

But we must trust the process, as KSKT has earned themselves huge credit already as the top ranked Games Played owner in Slam so far, with an impressive string of maxed out weeks. Coach Matt is getting the most value out of their roster and that’s going to lead to long term success! In the short term, KSKT has a ODE splits of 9/3/5 over the past month — good for third best in the league over that span — exhibiting strengths in PTS, FG%, REB, BLK, and TO. While they are lacking in the passing and long-range shooting departments, KSKT is still putting in the foundation for a playoff contender.

And the future is bright with Zion Williamson, Michael Porter Jr., 2021 RD1.4 Tyrese Haliburton, Capela, and continued flashes from Coby White, Saddiq Bey, and Keldon Johnson. Even with Caris LeVert yet to make his Pacers debut, at least Kristaps Porzingis is back and doing his unicorn things. If KSKT can get two more wins, that equal what the downtrodden CMTO franchise had accomplished in the past three years. Go get’em tiger! I mean, lion?

FOBS Fob Stars (2-8)

Something terrible has happened: after five straight post-season appearances, FOBS have collapsed and are likely headed toward their worst season since 2015. What happened?! It’s still Dame Time around here, as Damian Lillard continues to push his game up to legendary levels. Last year's playoff hero Jamal Murray has recently reclaimed his groove as well, and the newly freed Jarrett Allen is proving to be a monster in Cleveland.

Old hands Bojan Bogdanovic and Goran Dragic have been fine too, while pre-draft trade acquisition Montrezl Harrell and 2021 RD4.5 Dillon Brooks have been very solid rotation pieces. Oh yeah, and John Collins is still out here, a little less spicy than last year’s version, but still excellent overall. So what gives?

Sure, Rui Hachimura has been just okay, and 2021 RD1.12 rookie Obi Toppin has already been cut by GM Jimmy, but those are the only two semi-disappointments we can see here. Heck, sophomore De’Andre Hunter was scooped up in 2020 at RD1.5, but FOBS got him this season at the low low price of a 2021 RD5.12, and Hunter was well on his way to a breakout campaign before hitting the IR.

We could blame a thirteenth ranked Games Played score, but there’s been a solid GP most weeks for FOBS, and only one violation. Hum, could an uptick be coming? At least over the past month, FOBS have ODE splits of 9/11/4, which is a huge improvement from their overall season. Aside from a real lack of 3PT, AST, and STL — all of which could be remedied by adding some guard types — FOBS is not terrible. We’re seeing some dark horse Toilet Bowl contention vibes here, and that could give FOBS the chance to bounce back to their winning ways next season.

TRUO Truo Thien (2-8)

We said pre-season that TRUO had hit rock bottom, but we were wrong: this season is TRUO’s rock bottom, and with only two wins against fellow bottom feeders KSKT and FUNK, things clearly haven’t been great. But there could be some sunshine ahead.

Jimmy Butler is still a top-twenty player, Julius Randle has emerged as an All-Star and a legitimate franchise piece, Jordan Clarkson is the leading Sixth Man of the Year, Kemba Walker has returned from injury — with Lauri Markkanen on the way — and the youngish wing mishmash of Andrew Wiggins, pre-draft trade acquisition Kelly Oubre Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Tim Hardaway Jr., are all useful pieces. That’s a solid nine-man rotation there right? Who cares if 2021 RD1.5 Deni Avdija has been slow to cook? Avdija looks talented and is going to get better.

Our advanced analytics say TRUO could be the eighth-best team the rest of the way — their third-worst combined ODE says otherwise — so there’s the possibility of a Toilet Bowl run here. Bringing in some top talent through a loaded draft next season could be just the ticket for TRUO to return to the playoffs. GM Thien has been uncharacteristically only league average in Games Played — while being very characteristically leading the way for Moves — but we have no doubt they’ll be grinding hard to unearth some gems.

We’ll be curious if Butler and Walker are dangled for trade talks, as they are the two age outliers here on a team that is continually getting younger. We’re cheering for TRUO to get a top two pick next season, and to do that they’ll need to make a run in the Toilet Bowl!

SPDE Spade (1-9)

Speaking of rock bottoms, here’s Spade! The lone Chamberlain team in the cellar, SPDE isn’t just the worst team in the conference, they’re the worst team in the league. Actually, SPDE has been here before, as three seasons ago they recorded just two wins in twenty-one weeks. However, this year’s 0-9 start was pretty sad, with only one close loss to speak of. However, a WK10 win versus FUNK got SPDE out of the winless column so there’s that at least. For a franchise that is used to regular season success, and went 26-11-2 in the last two years, this is all bad news.

Injuries have hit SPDE hard this season, as per semi-usual. Kevin Love, Hassan Whiteside, Danilo Gallinari, JJ Redick, and others have missed plenty of games this year, with the first two barely seeing the court if at all. There’s no doubt the Kawhi Leonard and Devin Booker duo are still tops — and sophomore Tyler Herro has about as advertised — but the big plus this season has been the return of Victor Oladipo, who SPDE gambled on with a 2021 RD1.9 and won out. Still, for a team touted as a title contender heading into the season, SPDE has so far been anything but.

The thing is, there’s an easy culprit here: SPDE is third-to-last in Games Played, with two violations in ten weeks, and the first six weeks of the season were just a mess for them. Did this time period coincide with Randall doing doctor things and saving lives? Sure! But hey, we are a fantasy basketball league, and we show no mercy for bad fake coaching. I mean, our other doctor, ILCN Frank, is top three in Games Played, and he’s the (fake?) busiest person I know!

We expect SPDE to make a big play for a Toilet Bowl victory, which could net them some much needed youth to build out alongside Booker and Herro. Sure, we’d be curious to see a full scale rebuild here, but SPDE has stuck with his core for long time, and we don't think the trade fireworks are coming anytime soon. Or are they?!

Two-Thirds Season: Top Four

With ten weeks down — we’re currently in an extended WK11 due to All-Star break — it’s time to look at how our teams are shaping up so far this year. Shockingly, there’s only five more weeks to go, and the playoffs are just a month or so away! We’ll take a look at our top four teams, the bottom four, and then the other eight teams next week.

SWMP Swamp Dragons (8-1-1)

After an aborted 2020 campaign, SWMP picked up right where they left off last season as they continue to dispense beatdowns on the rest of the league. In addition, SWMP are 2-1 in their matchups versus the other three top contenders this season — FJUB, SOUR, CHMK — with their lone loss coming by one block against CHMK in WK6.

Our new advanced analytics system had SWMP as the top rated team coming into the season and they still hold down the top spot, along with a league leading ODE rating and splits of 2/1/3. So who can slow down this juggernaut? Well, there was the recent tie to ICLN that raised some eyebrows, as SWMP had to dig deep into the rotation to play someone named Saben Lee. (Seriously, who is that?) Over the past month, SWMP has somehow dropped down to thirteenth on offense and just league average on defense. Their PTS have really suffered while their 3PT have dropped low as well.

Of course, this could all be a temporary blip as the roster is chock-full of talent. Nikola Jokic and Paul George are both at or near their career highs, Christian Wood has further cemented his promise as a do-everything big man, and even 2021 RD3.4 pick Mike Conley has returned to form this year — finally making it as an NBA All-Star this season.

While Deandre Ayton has taken a step back overall — taking Ayton first in 2019 over Luka Doncic could haunt SWMP for two decades — RD3.14 find Chris Boucher is providing insane BLK and 3PT numbers, possibly making Ayton expendable. Conspiracy theory: Was CHMK’s advice to take Ayton over Doncic Evan’s greatest power move to keep his cousin away from a ring?

In addition to everything listed above, there’s also ultra-efficient Khris Middleton to tie everything together for our 2021 title favorites. With the potential return of D’Angelo Russell to the court, SWMP should have an excellent shot at their first Slam title this season.

FJUB Fat Jubas (8-2)

Nipping closely at SWMP’s heels are the surprising FJUB, who entered the season as a solid but not quite contending team, and are now squarely in the conversation for a proper championship chase. Led by the big-impact, small-stature backcourt of Fred VanVleet and Chris Paul, FJUB are on a five game winning streak and are peaking as the second-best ODE team, with splits of 5/2/7. Essentially punting PTS and FG%, FJUB combines a league-leading defense with efficiency from the line, low turnovers, and impressive three-point shooting.

There’s a distinct dearth of rebounding on this team — as Myles Turner and Brook Lopez are both notorious bigs who can’t grab boards for some reason — but the trade off of Jrue Holiday for Tobias Harris indicates that GM Eric knows that securing misses are part of the defensive equation. The answer could be playing free-agent acquisition Darius Bazley more, as the twenty-year old is capable of leading FJUB in rebounds, ahead of Harris and Robert Covington.

Feeling perky about his title chances, Eric has made more than just the Harris move so far this season. FJUB shipped out Jonas Valanciunas and Elfrid Payton for Malcolm Brogdon back in January, and the recent acquisitions of Ricky Rubio and Seth Curry — in exchange for Kevin Huerter — should replenish their depth.

We’re looking hard at a WK13 matchup versus SOUR to assess FJUB’s true contender status, but if FJUB can somehow win a title this season, it would have been an impressive eight years between championships!

SOUR Sour Snails (7-2-1)

Of course, the road to the 2021 title still goes through Sour Town, and to no one’s surprise, the healthy returns of Kevin Durant and Steph Curry have taken SOUR back to the top. Despite semi-stumbling out of the gate 2-1-1 — with a first week loss to ABCX and a WK4 tie versus SCRM — there’s no question Trieu’s team is still the one to beat for any true contender. With a current matchup with CHMK this week, and future nationally broadcasted games versus FJUB and SWMP in WK13 and WK16 respectively, we’re gonna find out just how scary this version of SOUR is.

On paper, this is possibly SOUR’s weakest title contender, with Curry and Durant flanked by Zach LaVine and Pascal Siakam and a supporting cast that is less than fearsome. Yeah, Richaun Holmes is quietly throwing up double-doubles and PJ Washingon, Harrison Barnes, and Serge Ibaka have all been pretty good, but the pure star power of SOUR seems to be a bit diminished this year.

Then again, SOUR are still the second-best ODE team on the season and have even elevated themselves to the top spot over the past month, with splits of 3/4/2. They are basically top-three in every category save REB, AST, and BLK, where they are about league average. Still, as is usually the case, there’s not a whole lot of teams who can match up to SOUR, and even with the possibility of Curry or Durant missing games, SOUR is the team to beat until they’re not!

CHMK Chunky Monkeys (7-3)

After coming out the gate with five wins in six games, CHMK might be sputtering a bit, as they’ve dropped two games recently, to KSKT and SQSQ. Are the father-son duo CHMK’s Kryptonite? Maybe!

With three Russell Conference regular season titles in the past four years — and their still shiny title from 2018 — CHMK knows they can win, but do they have their sights set on a championship this year? Trading away LeBron James pre-draft indicated a sell off of veteran assets but then CHMK moved an in-his-prime Clint Capela and young talent Keldon Johnson for Jonas Valanciunas two months ago — while securing KSKT’s 2022 RD1 and RD2 as well — which would seem like a turn toward contention again. Make up your mind Evan!

On one hand, there is the very young core of Bam Adebayo, Collin Sexton, Mikal Bridges, and potentially Thomas Bryant. But then the heart of the team is still James Harden and Kyle Lowry, who are both on significantly different timelines. CHMK has been slightly above average in combined ODE this season, but their offense has taken a bit hit with the loss of King James, and their floor spacing has become almost non-existent, as they rank second-to-last in 3PT this season. Still, CHMK is not to be trifled with, as they project to be the third-best team the rest of the way, according to our advanced analytics.

So I guess we’ll find out as the trade deadline nears if CHMK is serious about making a title push this year, or if they’ll possibly move Lowry — or Harden?! — for more future focused assets.

Trades: Mid-Season

Well we had our pre-draft trades and since then there's been quite a few more! Good job guys! Our trade deadline is technically before the playoffs start, which will be after WK16, which is the April 12-18 week. So yes, trade deadline is April 18th! In the meantime, let's look at the trades that went down.

Jonas Valanciunas was moved two times, first from FJUB to KSKT and then three days later to CHMK. Fun fact: The Valanciunas trade ended his eight year run with FJUB, which ranked as the seventh-longest stretch with one franchise. Chris Paul, also a FJUB, now moves up the list, trailing James Harden (11), Steph Curry (11), LaMarcus Aldridge (10), Paul George (9), Kyrie Irving (9), and Kawhi Leonard (9). Thanks for your service JV!

Additionally, this was KSKT's fourth trade of the season and we love to see the action! In fact, we are already thirteen trades into the season and only ABCX and SOUR haven't participated in a move yet -- shocking non-action for SOUR, we know!

The biggest move of the current slate of trades was probably the one in February between SQSQ and FJUB, as they exchanged Tobias Harris and Jrue Holiday. Both are near All-Star quality players and you know we love big-for-small exchanges that help both teams! We got a month for more deals to happen, let's gooooo!